A brief article from Reuters reports that a Gartner study says only five percent of Europeans and 20 percent of Asians are interested in watching videos and television on their cellular phones during the next 12 months.
The article says interest in mobile video/mobile TV ranked near the bottom of the list of applications. Reuters reports Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at Gartner, says, “I think the main reason is the compromise you are making on the device you need to carry to watch TV -- either too big if you want a nice experience or too small and you do not have a good experience.”
The article also says the multiplicity of mobile TV protocols, lack of successful business models and spectrum shortages have been hampering the growth of mobile TV.
Relying on research can be dangerous
I haven’t seen the Gartner study so I certainly can’t comment on the conclusions. I do know, however, that many aspects of mobile TV are “fixable” and consumer reactions based on today’s networks, devices and pricing are likely to be significantly different in the months and years to come.
Although I’m a big fan of conducting detailed research, after reading mobile communications research reports for 29 years, I am also a fan of using one’s own intelligence to extrapolate future demands rather than merely accepting “research” as gospel.
For the mobile TV industry — as with the camera phone industry — so-called experts have often spent too much time basing their long-term conclusions on current conditions rather than contemplating future technological developments and, just as importantly, also understanding the human condition.
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