Telecom Trends International’s new mobile television report predicts more than two billion users watching free mobile TV and total industry revenues of $134.5 billion by 2013, according to the press release and the firm’s brief executive summary of the report.
The report, “Mobile TV: Executing the Vision,” says the overwhelming majority of people will watch free mobile TV but paid TV will offer high quality made-for-cellular programs.
The executive summary says 8.9 million people watched mobile TV in 2006, of whom 3.9 million paid for the service, rather than receiving it free over the network (see below).

By the end of 2007, there will be 24.4 million mobile TV viewers, of whom 33.7 percent will pay for subscriptions. In 2009 more than 100 million people will watch free mobile TV and in 20013 that number will exceed two billion, the report says.
Mobile TV a killer app
Naqi Jaffery, the president and chief analyst, at Telecom Trends International, says mobile TV is a killer app and, “Just as mobile voice is becoming the primary means of voice communication, mobile TV will eventually become the primary means of accessing television.”
He says in the release, “The momentum generated by mobile TV has surprised many industry observers. Despite the multiplicity of standards and lack of uniform frequency allocation, mobile TV is making a tremendous impact on the marketplace.”
Indeed, the summary says cellular will be the primary way to access video programs, just as cellular is the primary method for voice calls. “The market is seeing the evolution of multi-network architecture with the same device supporting more than one standard.
“At the same time, out-of-band broadcast and in-band multicast technologies are converging into one seamless network architecture. Besides providing high quality TV reception, such architecture enables interactivity that will give a significant boost to mobile commerce.”
Business model confusion
Jaffery’s comments about the current success and future growth are rather interesting, especially in light of so many analysts reporting how poorly mobile TV has done in terms of subscriber numbers.
However, I’m glad to read that the summary doesn’t provide all “happy news.” The summary notes that the wireless industry has “bungled” the pricing model by either getting lots of subscribers with free service, but few revenues, or by signing up a disappointing number of subcribers with subscriptions.
The summary says, “The year 2008 will see the marriage of these two models with the industry migrating to a model that provides basic programming free of charge, and premium programming for an additional fee.”
Fee versus free
The United States definitely has the fee-based model. However, I can see cellular operators eventually offering some basic channels to stimulate the purchase of mobile TV-capable handsets. Sprint, for example, has established its own production facilities in Chicago and offers its own programs with its Sprint Exclusive Entertainment (SEE) network, as I previously wrote.
Currently SEE is available “for free,” but Sprint customers must purchase one of several Power Vision subscriptions, ranging from $15 to $30 per month for mobile TV, music, SMS, Web browsing, etc. So SEE isn’t free, but it’s definitely a resource that Sprint could offer without requiring other subscriptions.
However, Power Vision packages include unlimited data access, such as e-mail and Web browsing, so any truly free SEE offering would have to take data access into account in some way.