Reiter's Mobile TV Report

Cisco forecasts enormous mobile data growth, including video, by 2013

Cisco’s “Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update” provides some interesting statistics about mobile data use, including a strong demand for mobile video over the next several years.

Cisco says almost 64 percent of mobile traffic (which I believe includes portable computers and cellular phones) will be video by 2013.  Mobile video’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2008 and 2013 will be 150 percent, which is the highest rate for any application category Cisco measured for the study.

Cellular phones, transmitting at data rates of 3.5G or higher, and cellular modems in laptops, will produce more than 83 percent of international mobile traffic by 2013 (see below). 

“A single high-end phone like the iPhone/BlackBerry generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones, Cisco says.  “A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.”

[Note to Cisco:  An “AirCard” is a registered trademark of electronics manufacturer Sierra Wireless, which for years has sold “AirCard” cellular modems.  I suggest you use another word or phrase, such as “cellular modem.”]

Dramatic mobile data growth

Latin America will experience the fastest growth rates, 166 percent CAGR, followed by Asia/Pacific of 146 percent.  By 2013, Asia/Pacific will represent one third of all mobile data traffic, and when combined with Western Europe’s growth rate, the two areas will represent more than 60 percent of worldwide mobile data traffic (see below).

Currently, the primary applications for mobile data are video, basic video conferencing, simple games and multimedia, SMS, MMS, e-mail and Internet browsing, says Cisco.  With the development of networks of 3.5G and faster, other applications will emerge, such as telemedicine, mobile virtual presence, interactive gaming, a variety of machine-to-machine services and mobile education.

Cisco says the implications of ubiquitous high-speed mobile data networks are “difficult to overestimate.”  The data footprint of a single mobile subscriber in 2015 could be 450 times greater than in 2005 (see below).

Exabytes per month

Cisco forecasts a doubling of mobile data traffic every year through 2013, resulting in an increase of 66 times from 2008 to 2013.  Mobile data traffic will increase at 131 percent CAGR from 2008 to 2013 and reach more than two exabytes per month by 2013 [1 exabyte = 1 quintillion bytes].

Mobile data traffic will increase from one petabyte per month to one exabyte per month — half the time required by fixed data traffic to reach the same amount.  From 2005 to 2012, mobile data traffic will have increased 1,000 times.

MediaFLO teams with Audiovox for in-vehicle mobile TV

Qualcomm MediaFLO is teaming with Audiovox to offer mobile television service in vehicles, according to Engadget.  Audiovox is developing a TV receiver that will plug into many vehicle video systems.

Some ten to 15 channels will be available when the service launches this year, Engadget says.  However, channels that are exclusive to Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility won’t be part of the in-vehicle service.  That’s sort of what “exclusive” means!

Engadget says the demonstration produced blurry video.  Of course, a demonstration is different than a commercial launch, and I doubt MediaFLO would launch with poor quality video.

I’ve watched MediaFLO over Verizon Wireless, and the quality is rather good.  Sometimes there’s buffering and pixelation, but it’s typically much better than mobile TV over 3G channels.  The in-vehicle unit is likely to have to better antenna than those in cellular phones.

Challenges and advantages

MediaFLO transmits over Qualcomm’s network of antennas, and is available in several dozen markets across the country.  The company hopes to offer service in 100 markets by the end of the year.

For local and metropolitan area driving within the available markets, the in-vehicle service should work fine.  But for long distance drives, there won’t be continuous coverage.

With the profusion of portable DVD players and as more vehicles are equipped with DVD players for back seat viewing, consumers might not be willing to pay a monthly subscription fee for MediaFLO.  However, there’s a limit to how many DVDs a family might take or want to purchase, and MediaFLO offers live service.

So for live video news, MediaFLO might be preferred.  For example, Fox News and MSNBC are on MediaFLO.

Open Mobile Video Coalition to launch mobile TV in 22 markets, 63 stations

The Open Mobile Video Coalition (OMVC) says its members in 2009 plan to launch broadcast mobile television in the United States with 63 TV stations in 22 markets that will cover 35 percent of households (note: the link opens a Microsoft Word document).

The initial group of stations include 14 affiliates from NBC, nine from ABC, nine from CBS, five from FOX, nine from ION Television, four from CW and four from MyNetworkTV.  Also, nine PBS stations are in discussions with the OMVC about the possibility of joining the launch.

The stations will employ their existing broadcast spectrum to transmit signals using the ATSC (Advanced Television Systems Committee) Mobile DTV standard.  The stations are installing additional equipment to transmit the mobile TV programs to any device that contains an appropriate receiver.

Mobile DTV devices

Mobile DTV products can include cellular phones, music players, portable videos players, laptop computers and vehicle entertainment systems.  The programs probably will be free to users, although the exact details are being worked out. 

If the programs are advertising-supported — just like traditional TV programs — consumers might not have to pay to receive the transmissions.  However, they will have to purchase Mobile DTV-compatible hardware or perhaps buy an external TV receiver that connects to an existing device, just as it’s possible to buy a TV receiver that plugs into a computer.

Cellular phones are a prime — the prime — device for Mobile DTV.  But if the programs aren’t broadcast over cellular frequencies and cellular operators aren’t part of the value equation, the phones could be much more expensive than operator-subsidized phones.

Types of programs

Television stations that offer Mobile DTV could transmit just their regular programs, but they don’t have to.  They could transmit mobile-only programs or intersperse mobile-specific programs as part of their traditional programming.

In effect, the technology enables TV broadcasters to create another channel for mobile users.  Whether consumers will want free, ad-supported mobile TV, and purchase new hardware is an open question.  But it will be very interesting to see whether the new mobile TV ecosystem succeeds.