At the GSMA Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Adobe announced it would offer a full version of Flash –– Flash Player 10 — for Windows Mobile, Google Android, Nokia Series 60 (Symbian) and Palm webOS phones beginning early in 2010, according to CNET News.
This is a big deal. Currently, the only version of Flash for cellular phones is Flash Lite, which requires Web content to be coded specifically for that software. Adobe says about 40 percent of phones shipped today have Flash Lite.
However, with the regular computer version of Flash for phones — which Adobe says will be offered — the entire world of Flash videos, including television programs and full length movies, would be available.
Cellular subscribers would be able to, supposedly, download and stream complete TV programs and clips from the networks as well as video aggregators, such as Hulu. This could dramatically affect the mobile television business in countries where the dominant revenue model is based on paid subscriptions, rather than advertiser-supported free channels.
Not all rosy
Of course, subscription-based mobile TV plans aren’t subject to the data caps that require users to pay additional fees if they exceed the maximum data allowance. In the U.S., the typical maximum cap is 5 GB for $60 per month, and downloading lots of videos can take up a lot of bandwidth.
Also, the speed and reliability of 3G isn’t always good enough to download or stream standard definition videos, let alone high definition. In contrast, Qualcomm’s MediaFLO mobile TV service employs its own frequencies and antennas that provide video quality that’s typically superior to transmissions over 3G.
Of course, subscription-based content for 3G frequencies can be optimized for streaming or on-demand programs.
Battle between free versus paid?
Members of the Open Mobile Video Coalition next year are expected to begin offering free, advertiser-supported television programs to devices that are equipped with receivers supporting the ATSC Mobile DTV standard, which the Coalition promotes.
Another financial consideration is the increase in WiFi-enabled handsets, which could download and stream Flash videos without requiring 3G airtime.
So, if U.S. cellular users can receive free programs and movies via Mobile DTV using TV broadcasters’ frequencies as well as Flash-based Web sites via WiFi or 3G, will subscription-based mobile TV services be in trouble?
Cellular operators won’t ignore this
Obviously cellular operators don’t want their mobile TV revenues — albeit slim — dry up. The operators aren’t likely to bundle Flash on the handsets they subsidize, unless they can generate some revenues. Also, we don’t know if phone manufacturers will incorporate Mobile DTV receivers or if cellular operators will sell and subsize these handsets.
Mobile TV in 2009 and 2010 will be a very interesting business.
Update (6/24/09): HTC’s new Android phone, Hero, will include Adobe’s Flash Player 9 features.