The research firm SNL Kagan says the five top mobile television firms, based on revenues in 2008, are: ESPN, $38.4 million; MobiTV, $23.8 million; MTV Mobile, $22.4 million; CNN, $22 million and Comedy Central, $20 million, according to mocoNews.net.
SNL Kagan estimates the top 18 video providers and aggregators generated revenues in 2008 of $306 million, which will grow 17 percent to $359 million in 2009, including subscriptions, one-time fees and advertising within videos. MocoNews.net says — realistically — “The figures have a sobering affect on other estimates that put revenues — albeit internationally — easily into the billions.”
Based on the SNL Kagan figures, ESPN, MobiTV and MTV were the fastest growing mobile TV ventures in 2008, although other firms will grow faster this year. GoTV’s revenues will increase 56 percent, and Viva Vision and Cartoon Network will each increase 30 percent, mocoNews.net writes.
Top mobile TV aggregators
The top aggregator in 2008 was MobiTV with 4.4 million subscribers. (A few days ago MobiTV said it had more than 7 million subscribers.) There seems to be a bit of a mistake — mocoNews.net says that in the fourth quarter of 2008, SNL estimates “Qualcomm’s MediaFLO had 239,000 subscribers, up from 40 million in the same period a year earlier.”
I assume the 239,000–subscriber number is correct, but there must be a mistake/typo with the 40 million number! Could it be, instead, “up from 40,000”? I’ll send an e-mail to the writer for clarification.
Interestingly, the majority of mobile TV subscribers don’t have smartphones. In 2008, 20 percent of subscribers had smartphones, which will increase to 43 percent by the end of 2010. By the end of 2011, SNL Kagan forecasts the majority of mobile TV subscribers will be on smartphones, mocoNews.net says.
Of course, the overwhelming majority of cellular users around the world don’t have smartphones, although that number is growing significantly.
Better browsers
Approximately 70 percent of mobile TV revenues result from content producers’ deals with cellular operators. “However, video will increasingly be watched over a browser as carrier networks continue to open up,” mocoNews.net writes about the SNL Kagan report.
It seems inevitable to me that cellular subscribers will increasingly view mobile TV programs, clips and even movies via browsers as the software improves. For example, Skyfire’s proxy-based browser can play Hulu in Windows Mobile and Symbian phones, and is testing the browser for BlackBerry phones.
Also, Adobe has been saying from months that it’s working on a full featured version of Flash (not just Flash Lite) for cellular phones.